Who does the Footballguys staff see has risers and fallers among the top 10 fantasy receivers for the rest of the season?
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs (see below)
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In
Let's roll.
WR Risers/Fallers
Matt Waldman: Let's examine the top 10 fantasy receivers (PPR) heading into Week 7. Let's take it a tier at a time within this top 10.
Who has the best shot to stick inside the top 5
Waldman: Pick two options from the top five on the board with the best chance to remain in this tier.
I'm not counting Nico Collins because he's hurt. I'm subbing Stefon Diggs, who was ranked just below.
Dan Hindery: Ja’Marr Chase is a no-brainer pick to remain in this tier. He is among the handful of most talented players at his position in the NFL, has a track record of putting up big fantasy numbers, and is the clear go-to option in a Top 5 offense.
The second pick is tougher but I lean towards Drake London. He has seen 10-plus targets in three straight games and it has felt like a legitimate breakout from a player who just turned 23. We also know Kirk Cousins is capable of supporting elite wide receiver production.
Andy Hicks: I like Ja’Marr Chase and Drake London from this group. London has five consecutive games with at least six receptions and touchdowns in four of those games. The Falcon's offense with Kirk Cousins under center is going to throw a lot.
We have years of elite production from Chase. Burrow and Chase are on the same page. Always have been. Just injury to both has stopped consistent production over the last couple of years. Normal service has been resumed.
Jason Wood: I'm thrilled to see Diggs performing since I was all in on him during the preseason. I never bought into the narrative that he had somehow lost his status as a true No. 1 receiver just because of a few bad weeks at the end of the 2023 season. That was poor reasoning, and hopefully, our customers followed our recommendations to the contrary.
That said, I don’t think Diggs will stay in the top 5 or 6 receivers for long. Nico Collins will return, and Tank Dell is still in the mix. The Texans have talent all over the roster, so there will be ups and downs in terms of who shines each week. To maintain elite value, you generally need to be the clear alpha in your system.
With that in mind, I’m going with Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin. Chase was a consensus top-3 receiver this year, and I haven’t seen anything to suggest he shouldn’t stay in that tier. The Bengals will be throwing a lot, no matter the game script, and Chase has a talent level that few other receivers can match.
Godwin, on the other hand, was a surprise for me. I was concerned about Liam Coen taking over the Buccaneers’ offense, but that worry seems unfounded. Godwin fits right into that hyper-targeted super-slot role, similar to how Cooper Kupp is used in Los Angeles.
Sam Wagman: Drake London and Ja'Marr Chase have the best chances here. Starting with Chase, the Bengals rank second in Pass Rate over Expected this season, mostly due to their poor defense. Tee Higgins has looked great, but Chase is still the team's alpha and is the current WR1 on the season, thanks to two stellar performances.
London has been the surprise of the season for me. He is carrying a 28% target share and has meshed with Kirk Cousins so far, and the result of that is 35 targets in his last three games with two touchdowns on four red zone targets. He is the clear Alpha of a pass-heavy Falcons team running a Sean McVay-style offense, which always bodes well for fantasy.
Who has the best shot to rise to the top-five tier?
Waldman: Pick two options from the bottom half of the top 10 to rise to the top-5 tier.
McLaurin is here because I didn't count Collins due to injury.
Wood: Not to nitpick, but Malik Nabers is already there. He’s the No. 2 fantasy receiver on a per-game basis; the only reason he’s not in the overall Top 5 is because of his concussion.
Waldman: Quite alright, I didn't explain my decision to leave him in the conversation because I projected him to be back much sooner than Collins.
Wood: Got it. I can’t see Nabers falling out of the conversation—he’s one of those transcendent players who dominates despite having a subpar supporting cast and a questionable quarterback.
I also can’t see Justin Jefferson outside the Top 5, especially considering how well Sam Darnold is playing. CeeDee Lamb is equally talented and should bounce back as the season progresses, but right now, he’s way down at WR17 on a per-game basis, and the Cowboys’ season is unraveling fast.
Lamb will be fine, but I’m not sure the offense will be as efficient as in 2023, making him more of a low-end WR1 rather than a lock to return to the top of the rankings.
Wagman: Malik Nabers and Justin Jefferson stand out here. Nabers is easy for me. Despite missing the last two games, he has the top target share in the league at 38.1% and is averaging 28.8 Expected Fantasy Points per Game, which also ranks first in the league. He is the true engine of the Giants' offense and has transcended the issues of Daniel Jones to be a true superstar.
Jefferson is always solid, but he has meshed well with Sam Darnold and continues to consistently put up awesome numbers for fantasy. The Vikings are the fourth in passing offense by Pass Rate Over Expectation and continue to put up yards no matter who they face, with Darnold being a trendy MVP candidate.
Hindery: You could make a strong case for Malik Nabers. Based on both talent and expected target share, he's at or near the top of this tier. However, I’ll favor proven production over a larger sample size as the tiebreaker, leaning toward Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
Jefferson has been a victim of the Vikings' early-season success. Minnesota has trailed for only a few minutes this entire season, and they've often jumped out to big early leads. This explains why 76.4% of Jefferson’s receiving yards and all of his touchdowns have come in the first half of games. I don’t expect the Vikings to remain so consistently dominant, which should boost Jefferson’s fantasy production moving forward.
As for Lamb, something seems off in Dallas this season. He hasn't had any of the monster fantasy weeks he regularly posted last year and has yet to top 100 receiving yards in 2024. However, he's still getting plenty of opportunities (14 targets in Week 6), and with his talent, he's capable of delivering elite fantasy performances as the season progresses.
Hicks: I am kind of surprised at the group of players listed here, especially Justin Jefferson as he is the only guy listed who has had a bye. It’s a hard marker who says he hasn’t performed to the level expected. He hasn’t had more than six receptions in a game, which is unusual.
Malik Nabers is the other. He is simply a target hog. The concern with a concussion though is another one soon after. And opposing defenses know this. If he can avoid another one, he is elite for sure.
Who is most likely to fall out of the top 10?
Waldman: Of the players on this complete list, who are the two candidates most likely to fall out of the WR1 tier?
Hicks: Jayden Reed may struggle for season-long WR1 numbers. The options in Green Bay are plentiful and he will have too many low-performance games to repeat these numbers. He will still outpace preseason expectations, but this level cannot be maintained.
I also think Terry McLaurin falls back a level or two. We have five years' experience with him already. Jayden Daniels is bringing out the best in him, but it will be intermittent. Not enough to maintain his current numbers anyway.
Wagman: Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf both worry me here. Both have been very solid this season, but both have the same issue: they play for teams that want to run the ball and keep running the ball. Metcalf is a better option in my opinion, as the Seahawks are the most pass-heavy team in the league, which we knew Ryan Grubb would emphasize.
However, Grubb's offense depends on the run game getting going to move the ball and open up the passing game. Metcalf has never had high enough volume to get to WR1 status if the Seahawks can't establish the run.
McLaurin is in a similar spot where he needs a good situation to have success. All season long, we have seen him destroy man coverage as Jayden Daniels places the ball exactly where he needs to in one-on-one spots. When you add a safety over the top of McLaurin, though, things get dicey, as we have seen this season. That is not the recipe for a WR1.
Wood: DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin are barely in the conversation right now, and that’s largely because neither team has had their bye week. In PPR formats, they’re currently sitting at WR20 and WR21, respectively, on a per-game basis, which feels about right for both veterans. While they’re still viable every-week fantasy starters, I don’t see either one rising to or maintaining WR1 status.
Geno Smith leads the NFL in pass completions, attempts, and yards, but I’m not sure that kind of volume can or should be sustained. The Seahawks need more balance if they want to keep winning, and with two other viable receivers in the offense, Metcalf will have some down weeks.
As for McLaurin, he has far less competition for targets, but the Commanders' offense is built more around the run than the pass. And while Jayden Daniels has been a fantasy bonanza, he’s only thrown six touchdowns on 166 attempts—his 3.6% touchdown rate is low by any standard.
Hindery: Jayden Reed is the most likely candidate to drop out of the Top 10. While he has scored some long touchdowns, this has masked the fact that he isn't seeing many targets. The only game where he was targeted more than six times was against the Vikings when Green Bay fell into a huge hole and had to abandon the run early.
The second most likely to fall is a tougher call, but I’ll go with Chris Godwin. He’s been running hot in terms of touchdowns, with five through six games, which matches his combined total from 2022 (three) and 2023 (two).
Waldman: Thanks for reading, check out the other topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In
Good luck!