Is This Real? Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

After one week, it is important to consider what is real and what is not sustainable for fantasy production.

Isaiah Likely's Hot Start

Isaiah Likely burst onto the scene in week one with a career game, with 12 targets for 9 receptions, 111 receiving yards, and a touchdown. 

This led the team in targets, receptions, and yards while significantly outplaying teammate Mark Andrews, who finished with 2 targets, 2 receptions, and 14 yards. 

What does this mean for the future? 

Mark Andrews was still the leader in routes (38) ahead of Likely (35), but Likely was targeted on his routes much more frequently (34%) than Andrews (5%). 

This is a hot start for Likely, but he still plays behind Andrews in the offense.  Additionally, Andrews is an elite player on a per-player basis.  His career yards per route run of 2.15 is in the 99th percentile, and his career targets per route run rate of 24.5% is a 100th percentile performance. 

By comparison, Likely's career average is 1.42 yards per route run, a 77th-percentile performance, and he is targeted on 16.8% of his routes, a 61st-percentile performance.    

In preseason ADP, Andrews was TE4, while Likely was TE21.  As Adam Harstad notes, season-long production only becomes more predictive of season-long performance than ADP after week 4.  And based on their player profile, there were really strong reasons why Andrews was ranked higher than Likely in ADP.  One week of production should not dramatically shift what you think about players. 

The question is what the usage says about the future production perspective. 

The increase in Likely's snap share is the product of two factors.  First, according to Nathan Jahnke at PFF, Baltimore usage 12 personnel, with two tight ends and two wide receivers, more than 30 times in week one.  This is a marked increase over last season, when the most snaps Likely and Andrews played together in a game was 16. 

Additionally, Likely took more snaps in 11 personnel, when there is only 1 TE on the field.  When healthy last season, Andrews played 90% of the 11 personnel snaps.  In week one, Andrews played 11 of the snaps while Likely played 9 of the snaps in 11 personnel. 

While this certainly hurts Andrews' ceiling, the increase in two tight end sets make the drop in 11 personnel snap share less significant. 

Verdict: Overall, the bet should be on Andrews to be the TE1 in the offense, while Likely falls in the TE 8-16 range of the position.   Andrews' ceiling may drop, but if he falls out of the top 5 dynasty tight end valuation, he is a clear buy.  Additionally, if Likely is valued as a top 8 dynasty tight end, he is a clear sell candidate.