Dynasty Deals: Grade the Trades

Dynasty trading can be extremely complex depending on the timeframe used to evaluate the transaction. Our Hutchinson Brown and staff grade a pair or real recent trades.

Hutchinson Brown's Dynasty Deals: Grade the Trades Hutchinson Brown Published 06/03/2024

Winning a dynasty trade can be tough to judge. depending on the state of each roster involved in the deal. A team trying to win now has different needs than one starting a full rebuild. Combining those factors with the value of the players involved can make for a tricky evaluation.

This week, I gathered some submissions from Twitter and brought them to some of our Footballguys staff. Together, we analyzed the deals to help you all in your future dynasty trading.

Dynasty Trade 1 (from @ffyinzer):

Format: 12 teams, SF, PPR

Ryan Weisse’s Grade: A

The circumstances for both teams probably make this trade sensible, but acquiring a young wide receiver for an aging running back is always a win. I'd guess the team wanting Jacobs is in a win-now mode and needs a running back to improve in 2024. My concern is that Jacobs' deal is structured so that Green Bay has outs after every single season, meaning 2024 might be all you get out of him. They likely used a high first-round pick on Smith-Njigba last season, and I wonder if they would have traded that exact pick for Jacobs. At the very least, I would have wanted a second-round pick added to the Jacobs side, as acquiring the first wide receiver drafted in 2023 seems cheap.

Hutchinson Brown’s Grade: B+

This trade boils down to personal preference. I am going to lean with the Smith-Njigba side of this deal. While Jacobs could do good things in Green Bay, I'm worried about his horrid performance last season at an expiring age for running backs. Smith-Njigba has a make-or-break year coming up for his dynasty value. After disappointing a bit as a rookie, I expect him to make the leap and show why he was a first-round pick just last year.

I like the strategy here of investing in young wideouts, and one-for-one deals like this can lead to immense value. You can take advantage of managers who like a particular player on your roster a lot more than you do and get an asset you want from them.

Leo Paciga’s Grade: B

Context and roster build come into play with this deal - but in a vacuum, I’ll take the 22-year-old WR coming off of a somewhat disappointing rookie season (93 targets/63 catches/628 yards/4 TDs) as the WR3 behind Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. The risk with Smith-Njigba is a year-two drop in value if we don’t see expected improvements in productivity. Trading for an RB in May - even a proven commodity like Jacobs - is a strategy I generally avoid, even if it forces me to pay an August premium down the road after camp dust settles.

© Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports dynasty

Dan Hindery's Grade: B

This trade requires some short-term pain for long-term gain. Jacobs is a fourth-round redraft pick and Smith-Njigba is going off the board at least three rounds later. Expect Jacobs to outscore Smith-Njigba in 2024. However, Jacobs is a running back entering his sixth NFL season. Expecting more than a couple more productive seasons is unwise, given the recent history of similar backs. Smith-Njigba just turned 22 and should be a productive fantasy producer for the next eight to ten seasons.

Chad Parsons' Grade: B+

I am generally not a fan of trading wide receivers for running back in the offseason. The key running back months are in-season and IF they are healthy and IF they are productive to a meaningful level. So, the timing of the deal is what keeps this from an "A" grade. That said, Smith-Njigba is one of the more overrated wide receiver assets, considering he is still blocked due to other talent in Seattle and will drop a significant amount in value if his statistics from 2023 occur yet again in 2024.

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 Dynasty Trade 1 (from @brian_cromwell):

Format: 12-team, SF, PPR

Hutchinson Brown’s Grade: B-

Acquiring the Love/Reed stack is excellent, but I would slightly prefer Richardson and the pick over that combo in this deal. Love is a player who, due to a lack of rushing, has to repeat insane touchdown numbers year after year to sustain top 8 fantasy value at quarterback. Last year, he got lucky with touchdowns due to four rushing touchdowns from their running backs last season. I expect more balance this season due to natural regression and adding Josh Jacobs into the offense. Targeting quarterbacks with a lack of rushing upside for a high price isn't the ideal strategy most of the time in fantasy. Richardson is the opposite. While he has plenty of downsides, he has an unbelievable amount of upsides in fantasy due to his capabilities as a rusher. Based on the small flashes we saw in his healthy games, he has plenty of potential in the passing game with plenty of weapons at his disposal.

Chad Parson's Grade: D

I love Jordan Love, but I do not like the construction here. Richardson has an easier pathway to a monster fantasy season through his overt rushing upside. Getting Love+ for Richardson is pretty common in the market, even if you are bullish on Love, which I am. Jayden Reed falls in the huge bucket of interesting young wide receivers for upside, but many of them will level off or confirm they are good but not great in the next 1-2 years. Staying liquid with rookie picks, especially when 2.04 falls in a juicy range of potentially Michael Penix Jr.Ricky Pearsall, or Xavier Legette, is key for as long as possible.

Dan Hindery's Grade: C-

I prefer the two assets traded away to the two assets acquired. While Jordan Love is a safer and more proven option than Anthony Richardson, Richardson’s fantasy upside is immense due to his rushing ability. Both are great, but I have Richardson as a late first-round dynasty startup draft target and Love as an early second-round target. The dynamic is similar with Reed versus the 2.04. Reed is the safer bet. We already know his talent will play at the NFL level. The issue is that his upside may be limited due to the quality of the surrounding talent, especially if Christian Watson can stay healthy. Reed could have some very quiet weeks. The 2.04 is typically either Michael Penix Jr. or Trey Benson. Both have more long-term fantasy upside than Reed. 

Ryan Weisse’s Grade: A+

I like this deal for both teams, but I LOVE this deal for the team receiving Reed and Love. Let's start with the quarterbacks. I understand the upside of rushing quarterbacks like Richardson, but we also saw the downside last season when he played just four games. Love is only 25 years old and finished as a top-5 quarterback in his first season as a starter. At the very least, the two are equal, but I prefer Love straight up. That means this team also acquired Jayden Reed for the 2.04. I offered late firsts for Reed, a player I'm trying to develop everywhere, and my offers were declined. Reed showed top-10 potential in the second half of 2023 and is worth more than a second-round pick.

Leo Paciga’s Grade: C

Adding Jordan Love and Jayden Reed seems like a win since you’re getting a coveted QB/WR stack on a productive offense - but that price hurts. We’ve only witnessed a small sample size at the NFL level with Anthony Richardson - but in superflex, I’d rather have the 23-year-old quarterback with the duel-threat ability and the upside to be the best quarterback in fantasy football. The 2.04 would simply be icing on the cake.

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