The best deals you make are the ones you fear you might regret when you make them. We ride the rollercoaster of value throughout the season, and every week, there are buying and selling opportunities. Which are the best to try to take advantage of this week?
Buy Low
Mark Andrews (TE-BAL) - The Chiefs have always done a good job taking Andrews away, and they were successful in doing that again by focusing resources on him in the season opener. Isaiah Likely's breakout gives Lamar Jackson a good alternative when other teams take that approach. But it also is a disincentive to focus solely on Andrews, so it could not be as big a net negative as the box score makes it appear to be. The fact that the Chiefs focus on Andrews shows how important and potent he is in this pass offense. He's more likely to fulfill expectations than Travis Kelce, who also underperformed in Week 1.
Jaylen Wright (RB-MIA) - The injury seal has already been broken on Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. Jeff Wilson Jr. played ahead of Wright in Week 1, but that could have been simply because of Wilson's ability to contribute on special teams. We'll see how the work is divided with at least Mostert out in Week 2. Wright has the explosive big-play ability that made Achane a fantasy star in this offense and could be the genie that won't go back in the bottle once he gets a chance to run in this offense.
Drake London (WR-ATL) - You might be able to get London even lower if you wait a week (and the Falcons are playing in a high visibility prime-time game), but certainly, his dynasty and redraft value have dropped significantly after so much optimism about his prospects with Kirk Cousins pushed the values up in the offseason. Michael Penix is waiting in the wings and we have seen London perform like a #1 when the situation has been less than ideal in the past.
Jameis Winston (QB-CLE) - This is a great moment to get Winston for cheap in superflex dynasty leagues as the Browns are laying the groundwork to move on from Deshaun Watson. We saw what Joe Flacco could do in this offense, and that was without the Browns top two tackles, who are still on the mend. Winston could have a similar renaissance later this season.
Buy High
Anthony Richardson (QB-IND) - There was a lot to like about Richardson's Week 1 performance. Shane Steichen set him up to throw downfield frequently. Richardson missed at least as many open deep receivers as he hit, so there is room to grow as a passer. It makes sense for Richardson to be a work in progress because of how few starts he has had in his college and pro career. He was allowed to run at the goal line and lower his shoulder successfully for a touchdown. He didn't get hurt in the game. The prospect of a running quarterback who is also mostly a downfield/deep passer is something we haven't really seen in fantasy football since Michael Vick. Richardson could end up rivaling Josh Allen for QB1 this year and perhaps even overtake him if the deep accuracy and timing get better as the season goes on.
Baker Mayfield (QB-TB) - It won't be a surprise at all to see Mayfield as one of the top 2-3 fantasy quarterbacks who don't add a lot as a runner. He is in a terrific scheme designed by an offensive coordinator who took the job specifically to work with him. He has a great line and group of skill players. He plays in warm weather and should have few, if any, bad weather outdoor games in the second half of the season. Mayfield could be an especially big hit in six-point pass touchdown and 300-yard game bonus leagues.
Sell Low
Christian Kirk (WR-JAX) - Kirk already showed he was going to be less of a fantasy difference-maker last year when Calvin Ridley played in Jacksonville. This offseason, the Jaguars added two downfield targets, and both Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. were very good in their regular season debuts. Kirk may still have some spike games when Thomas can be nullified (good luck with that NFL cornerbacks!), but his central role in the passing game appears to be a thing of the past. Try to deal him for 50-75 cents on the dollar based on his value coming into the season.
Joe Burrow (QB-CIN) - Forget about the water bottle issue (Burrow says his wrist is fine). The Bengals offense just looked bad against the Patriots. Tee Higgins will be back soon enough, but he won't be a Bengal next year. Brian Callahan might have been more important than we thought, as new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher did little to help a shorthanded Burrow. Right now, he's still considered a QB1, but it feels like his production won't get back to previous highs. Plus, there's always a chance that he suffers another catastrophic injury and the bottom drops out of his value. I would be open to making a blockbuster deal in Superflex with Burrow going the other way at 80-90% of perceived market value.
Sell High
Joe Mixon (RB-HOU) - Don't sell Mixon just because in dynasty, and it's probably best to hold him in redraft. He looks like a great fit in a great offense. It's also possible that dynasty teams will need to see it for a few more weeks before buying in. If someone is looking for a running back in a dynasty league and comes calling about Mixon, and you are not in win-now mode, his value is as high as it has been in years. The Bengals were willing to trade him for very little. The Texans signing him to an extension was a surprise simply because 28 is the new 30 in NFL running back terms, and Mixon is going into his eighth year as a feature back, which is close to the outer reaches of a running back's career arc in this day and age. You might get more for Mixon if you hold a couple of weeks and he keeps going off, but if he gets hurt, the sell-high window will be closed. Mixon could defy the negative expectations that come with his age and mileage, but you don't want to gamble on that if you don't need him. At the very least, start cultivating the market for him by gauging interest among potential trade partners.