It's hard to believe that the NFL regular season is already here, with Week 1 kicking off on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several important drafts to wrap up in the next few days. This year, I released my first set of full projections back in February, so I've been analyzing and forecasting this season for over six months. A lot can change in six months—practically a decade in NFL terms. So, before you close out your draft season, I wanted to share the players who have changed my mind and explain why.
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The Tight Ends Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Evan Engram (ADP: TE8) is the best value among the top 10.
- Fade David Njoku (ADP: TE10).
- Brock Bowers (ADP: TE11) is draftable.
- T.J. Hockenson (ADP: TE14) will miss too much time to prioritize him.
- Taysom Hill (ADP: TE18) is a late-round gem.
- Theo Johnson (ADP: TE33) has the stars align.
- Mike Gesicki (ADP: TE28) is finally ready for relevance.
- Colby Parkinson (ADP: TE29) has an early opportunity to star.
- Jelani Woods (ADP: TE41) isn't a deep sleeper.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville
Evan Engram (ADP: TE8) is the Best Value Among the Top Ten Tight Ends
What I Thought: Engram was terrific last year with 114 receptions, but my initial projections viewed him as a fade due to the additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabriel Davis to the roster, which seemed like a reason to significantly discount Engram's 2024 projections compared to last season.
What I Think: In looking at how drafts have unfolded, Engram is available at an ideal spot because the receivers and running backs going off the board in the same area aren't particularly appealing. While Engram's target share is likely to decrease this year, he has positive touchdown regression potential that could more than offset any loss of targets.
David Njoku, Cleveland
Fade David Njoku (ADP: TE10)
What I Thought: Njoku had a career-best season in 2023, finishing as the fifth-ranked fantasy tight end. The Browns' offense could only improve if Deshaun Watson is finally healthy and focused, and Njoku's position in the pecking order seemed unchallenged.
What I Think: Njoku should be fine, but at his ADP, he's the first tight end drafted who isn't genuinely elite. He's the leader of the “dead zone.” Njoku's breakout season was largely due to Joe Flacco's pass-heavy stretch in the second half of the season. Njoku was ranked TE11 before Flacco took over and rose to TE2 during Flacco's tenure. The Browns are unlikely to throw 40 times per game, as they did with Flacco, making it more likely for Njoku to regress to his previous career averages. This means he has an equal chance of finishing outside the top 12 at his position as he does matching last year's performance.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas
Brock Bowers (ADP: TE11) is Draftable
What I Thought: Bowers was a dynasty darling before the NFL draft, but his landing spot on a team with questionable quarterbacking, coaching, and a crowded pass-catching corps, including Davante Adams, was concerning.
What I Think: Fantasy success is about ability and opportunity. Bowers' talent was never in question, and I've come around on his opportunity. He could follow a path similar to Trey McBride's last year, and if the Raiders trade Adams mid-season, Bowers could emerge as a primary target.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota
T.J. Hockenson (ADP: TE14) Will Miss Too Much Time to Prioritize Him
What I Thought: Hockenson's recovery from an ACL tear was progressing well, with optimism from all sides suggesting he'd be back around Week 1. Drafting him outside the top five tight ends seemed like a value, even if you had to wait a week or two.
What I Think: Hockenson will start the season on the PUP list, missing at least the first four games. Roster constraints in traditional leagues make it difficult to hold an injured tight end without an injured reserve slot, making him a logistical challenge to keep.
Taysom Hill, New Orleans
Taysom Hill (ADP: TE18) is a Late-Round Gem
What I Thought: Hill's dual role as quarterback and tight end made him intriguing, but his fantasy value was typically too volatile to rely on, and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak didn't seem likely to prioritize him.
What I Think: Kubiak and head coach Dennis Allen have praised Hill's versatility. With the Saints' thin offense lacking depth at running back and receiver, Hill could become a staple in the game plan, especially in the red zone.
Theo Johnson, NY Giants
Theo Johnson (ADP: TE33) Had the Stars Align
What I Thought: Rookie tight ends usually struggle, and with the Giants' offense projecting to be among the league's worst, Johnson's breakout chances seemed slim.
What I Think: The Giants' offensive line looks improved, and Johnson has been the only tight end consistently making plays in camp. In deeper leagues, Johnson is a worthwhile dart throw in the final rounds.
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati
Mike Gesicki (ADP: TE28) Finally Ready for Relevance
What I Thought: Gesicki's athleticism never translated to fantasy success in Miami, and his quiet signing with the Bengals didn't move the needle.
What I Think: With a clear path to snaps on a well-coached Bengals team and uncertainty surrounding Ja'Marr Chase's contract, Gesicki could quickly become a key piece in the offense and a hot waiver wire pickup.
Colby Parkinson, LA Rams
Colby Parkinson (ADP: TE29) Has an Early Opportunity to Star
What I Thought: The Rams were expected to run primarily multi-receiver sets, and Tyler Higbee would be back from injury soon.
What I Think: Parkinson is currently the top tight end in Higbee's absence, and the Rams still incorporate a tight end regularly, even in multi-receiver sets, giving Parkinson a chance to shine early.
Jelani Woods, Indianapolis
Jelani Woods (ADP: TE41) Isn't a Deep Sleeper
What I Thought: Woods had a chance to establish himself as a starter with a strong camp, given his athleticism and the opportunity to build rapport with Anthony Richardson.
What I Think: Woods failed to separate himself during camp and then suffered a foot injury requiring surgery, making him a less appealing deep sleeper than initially hoped.